Who do you think will win the Election?

[Zman]

Trump or Biden?

[Ampol]

Hopefully Biden mate. Although he is a turnip, he is the lesser of two evils here.

Demos really should have gone for Bernie as their nomination, he is a lot more charismatic, well spoken and likable than Joe.

[Vanilla Gorilla]

My money is on Kanye

[Sooz]

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[WritersPanic]

Seems like you'd need a wrist rocket.

[Sooz]

Biden

[Jessica]

Trump

[mallyboppa]

I'm with you Jessica I think he will win (good or bad IDK ) but I suspect that will be the result

[Undies]

i'll be extremely surprised if it's not trump.

[everything bagel]

I think Biden will win the election but that won't necessarily translate to him becoming the next prez

[SpaceMan]

Trump by a landslide

300 to 320 electoral votes

[tumbling.dice]

I don't know, but I'm voting for Jo Jorgensen.

[WritersPanic]

I'm betting one of the rich people wins!

[tumbling.dice]

I bet they're old white men too. Bastards.

[lode]

I assume people who don't believe in polls probably play the lottery a bit.

[WritersPanic]

I assume people who don't believe in polls probably play the lottery a bit.

Lotteries are for people who slept through high school math class. Polls were useful for many years, but the 2016 results showed how biased polling has become and how readily it can be used as a way to get people to stay home instead of voting.

Hillary sat on her ass the last week of the election and the polls predicted an easy win for her. Joe is currently sitting on his ass for the last week of the election. And where is Harris? Obama finally left the island, but just like Clinton in 2000, it's too late to help Biden, same as Gore.

If Trump wins, we'll all have 4 years to stock up on toilet paper, dry beans and liquor. Then the depression will begin.

If Biden wins, the depression will start in 2021. Largely because the Biden administration will be hacking away at everything Trump did. Even the few things he got right. Same as Trump did with Obama's legacy.

Either way, the wealthy are lining up for the great American giveaway.

[lode]

Lotteries are for people who slept through high school math class. Polls were useful for many years, but the 2016 results showed how biased polling has become and how readily it can be used as a way to get people to stay home instead of voting.

Hillary sat on her ass the last week of the election and the polls predicted an easy win for her. Joe is currently sitting on his ass for the last week of the election. And where is Harris? Obama finally left the island, but just like Clinton in 2000, it's too late to help Biden, same as Gore.

If Trump wins, we'll all have 4 years to stock up on toilet paper, dry beans and liquor. Then the depression will begin.

If Biden wins, the depression will start in 2021. Largely because the Biden administration will be hacking away at everything Trump did. Even the few things he got right. Same as Trump did with Obama's legacy.

Either way, the wealthy are lining up for the great American giveaway.

I cant debate that. Your theory is deniable either way. If Trump wins you can say polls are nonsense because Trump won. If Biden wins, you can say he won by the polls depressing the vote. It's self-affirming, but it's not empirical.

And I think people who don't believe in empiricism play the lottery a lot.

But we will see. Polls are just stat models so they're dependent on input. If voter turnout is high or low it changes calculations. Early voter turnout is high...

We'll know soon.

[tumbling.dice]

Lotteries are for people who slept through high school math class. Polls were useful for many years, but the 2016 results showed how biased polling has become and how readily it can be used as a way to get people to stay home instead of voting.

Hillary sat on her ass the last week of the election and the polls predicted an easy win for her. Joe is currently sitting on his ass for the last week of the election. And where is Harris? Obama finally left the island, but just like Clinton in 2000, it's too late to help Biden, same as Gore.

If Trump wins, we'll all have 4 years to stock up on toilet paper, dry beans and liquor. Then the depression will begin.

If Biden wins, the depression will start in 2021. Largely because the Biden administration will be hacking away at everything Trump did. Even the few things he got right. Same as Trump did with Obama's legacy.

Either way, the wealthy are lining up for the great American giveaway.

I don't have any proof, but as a mathematician I'd bet (pun intended) that the recent unreliability of polls has something to do with representative samples, specifically how they are being selected. I was watching various news sources this morning, some considered far left, others far right. They used different polls that suggested different probable results for Tuesday. Clearly something fundamental is going wrong. So I went to a place where money is God...Vegas! The latest numbers from the odds makers suggest a 64.5% chance of a Biden victory and around 28% chance of a trump victory. This does not add to 100% so I suppose the difference assumes a 269-269 electoral tie.

Vegas can be wrong, of course. But, being a careful person, I never bet against the house.